|
|
| 北半球复合极端高温事件呈上升趋势 |《自然-通讯》 |
|
论文标题：Anthropogenically-driven increases in the risks of summertime compound hot extremes
期刊：Nature Communications
作者：Jun Wang, Yang Chen et.al
发表时间：2020/02/11
数字识别码：10.1038/s41467-019-14233-8
微信链接：点击此处阅读微信文章
复合极端高温事件指的是，夏季某一天的昼夜温度均处于该日历史高温前10%之列。根据《自然-通讯》发表的一项研究Anthropogenically-driven increases in the risks of summertime compound hot extremes，在人为造成的气候变化影响下，这类事件将显著增加。到本世纪末，北半球人口暴露于这类事件的频率或比2010年代高4-8倍。
观测到的夏季极端高温的变化。
图片来源：Wang 等
中国气象科学研究院的陈阳等人分析了北半球1960年至2012年的温度数据，表明在此期间平均每十年约增加一天的复合极端高温，而且温度平均每十年增加0.28°C。统计分析证实，这种增加主要是由人为造成的温室气体排放引起的。
作者还展示了相关气候模型结果，研究了在两种排放场景下，复合极端事件未来有何变化。他们提出，在中度温室气体排放场景（RCP4.5）下，复合极端高温事件的发生频率将增加4倍，每个夏季达到32天；在重度排放场景（RCP8.5）下，将增加8倍，达到69天左右。相较于全球升温1.5°C，若全球升温2°C，可能导致每年的复合极端高温事件额外增加5天，温度额外上升0.5°C。
摘要：Compared to individual hot days/nights, compound hot extremes that combine daytime and nighttime heat are more impactful. However, past and future changes in compound hot extremes as well as their underlying drivers and societal impacts remain poorly understood. Here we show that during 1960–2012, significant increases in Northern Hemisphere average frequency (~1.03 days decade−1) and intensity (~0.28 °C decade−1) of summertime compound hot extremes arise primarily from summer-mean warming. The forcing of rising greenhouse gases (GHGs) is robustly detected and largely accounts for observed trends. Observationally-constrained projections suggest an approximate eightfold increase in hemispheric-average frequency and a threefold growth in intensity of summertime compound hot extremes by 2100 (relative to 2012), given uncurbed GHG emissions. Accordingly, end-of-century population exposure to compound hot extremes is projected to be four to eight times the 2010s level, dependent on demographic and climate scenarios.
来源：科学网
特别声明：本文转载仅仅是出于传播信息的需要，并不意味着代表本网站观点或证实其内容的真实性；如其他媒体、网站或个人从本网站转载使用，须保留本网站注明的“来源”，并自负版权等法律责任；作者如果不希望被转载或者联系转载稿费等事宜，请与我们接洽。
