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| 评估全球变暖背景下中国城市的热相关死亡率|《自然-通讯》 |
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论文标题：Tens of thousands additional deaths annually in cities of China between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming
期刊：Nature Communications
作者：Yanjun Wang,Anqian Wang,Jianqing Zhai,Hui Tao,Tong Jiang,Buda Su,Jun Yang,Guojie Wang,Qiyong Liu,Chao Gao,Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz,Mingjin Zhan,Zhiqiang Feng,Thomas Fischer
发表时间：2019/08/06
数字识别码：10.1038/s41467-019-11283-w
微信链接：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ejqzzoqrsbtXaORsjSpVKg
根据本周《自然-通讯》发表的一项研究Tens of thousands additional deaths annually in cities of China between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming，相比于全球气温较工业前水平上升1.5°C的场景，在上升2.0°C的场景下，每年中国城市将至少增加27,900例热相关死亡个案。
图1 中国大城市1961-2099年间高温的频率及强度。图源：Wang等
中国南京信息工程大学的王艳君、中国科学院的苏布达和南京信息工程大学姜彤等人在全球气温上升1.5°C和2°C的两种场景下，对中国27座城市（总人口超过2.47亿）的热相关死亡率进行建模。他们也考察了2010年至2100年，在五种不同的预期社会经济发展途径下的热相关死亡率。
研究结果表明，中国的整体死亡率或将上升，而中国北部地区的死亡率更高。如果不从社会经济角度对升温做出适应调整，那么在全球气温上升1.5°C和2°C的场景下，热相关死亡率可能将分别上升至每百万104-130人和每百万137–170人左右；如果做出适应调整，则热相关死亡率分别为每百万49–67人和每百万59–81人左右。
作者总结表示，相较于全球升温2.0°C，将升温幅度控制在1.5°C有望使热相关死亡率减少18%。
摘要：The increase in surface air temperature in China has been faster than the global rate, and more high temperature spells are expected to occur in future. Here we assess the annual heat-related mortality in densely populated cities of China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming. For this, the urban population is projected under five SSPs, and 31 GCM runs as well as temperature-mortality relation curves are applied. The annual heat-related mortality is projected to increase from 32.1 per million inhabitants annually in 1986–2005 to 48.8–67.1 per million for the 1.5 °C warming and to 59.2–81.3 per million for the 2.0 °C warming, taking improved adaptation capacity into account. Without improved adaptation capacity, heat-related mortality will increase even stronger. If all 831 million urban inhabitants in China are considered, the additional warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C will lead to more than 27.9 thousand additional heat-related deaths, annually.
（来源：Nature Communications）
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