论文标题：Self-preservation strategy for approaching global warming targets in the post-Paris Agreement era

期刊：Nature Communications

作者：Yi-Ming Wei, Rong Han et.al

发表时间：2020/04/14

数字识别码：10.1038/s41467-020-15453-z

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根据《自然-通讯》发表的一篇论文Self-preservation strategy for approaching global warming targets in the post-Paris Agreement era，如果世界各国无法完成其当前的国家自主贡献（Nationally Determined Contributions）温室气体减排目标，那么到2100年全球总损失可能达到150-792万亿美元左右。该研究还介绍了一项旨在获取最佳减排路径的模拟全球合作策略，并且表明这项策略有望带来约127-616万亿美元的经济效益。

代表性自我保存策略的推断场景。

图片来源：Wei 等

现有报告表明，2030-2052年全球气温可能上升1.5 °C。及早采取行动或许更能帮助消除不断扩大的排放差距，但是这也有可能产生大量的经济成本。应对气候变化行动不足可能产生多少经济损失，如果实现减排目标能产生多少净收益（气候变化造成的损失减去应对成本），掌握这些信息或许有助于做出决策。

中国北京理工大学的魏一鸣和余碧莹等人开发了一项全球合作策略，表明在实现控制气温上升目标的同时可以增加一国的净收益。作者发现如果成功地将气温上升幅度限制在2 °C或1.5 °C以内，那么到2100年，世界各国和地区累积可获净收益为正。但是，他们估计G20国家前期需要做出的投资将达16.38-103.53万亿美元左右。以美国为例，作者报告称美国的初始投资可能在5.41-33.27万亿美元左右。

摘要：A strategy that informs on countries’ potential losses due to lack of climate action may facilitate global climate governance. Here, we quantify a distribution of mitigation effort whereby each country is economically better off than under current climate pledges. This effort-sharing optimizing approach applied to a 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming threshold suggests self-preservation emissions trajectories to inform NDCs enhancement and long-term strategies. Results show that following the current emissions reduction efforts, the whole world would experience a washout of benefit, amounting to almost 126.68–616.12 trillion dollars until 2100 compared to 1.5 °C or well below 2 °C commensurate action. If countries are even unable to implement their current NDCs, the whole world would lose more benefit, almost 149.78–791.98 trillion dollars until 2100. On the contrary, all countries will be able to have a significant positive cumulative net income before 2100 if they follow the self-preservation strategy.

（来源：科学网）