论文标题：Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

期刊：Nature Communications

作者：Viktoriia Radchuk,Thomas Reed,Céline Teplitsky,Martijn van de Pol,Anne Charmantier,Christopher Hassall,Peter Adamík,Frank Adriaensen,Markus P. Ahola,Peter Arcese,Jesús Miguel Avilés,Javier Balbontin,Karl S. Berg,Antoni Borras,Sarah Burthe,Jean Clobert,Nina Dehnhard,Florentino de Lope,André A. Dhondt,Niels J. Dingemanse,Hideyuki Doi,Tapio Eeva,Joerns Fickel,Iolanda Filella,Frode Fossøy,Anne E. Goodenough,Stephen J. G. Hall,Bengt Hansson,Michael Harris,Dennis Hasselquist,Thomas Hickler,Jasmin Joshi,Heather Kharouba,Juan Gabriel Martínez,Jean-Baptiste Mihoub,James A. Mills,Mercedes Molina-Morales,Arne Moksnes,Arpat Ozgul,Deseada Parejo,Philippe Pilard,Maud Poisbleau,Francois Rousset,Mark-Oliver Rödel,David Scott,Juan Carlos Senar,Constanti Stefanescu,Bård G. Stokke,Tamotsu Kusano,Maja Tarka,Corey E. Tarwater,Kirsten Thonicke,Jack Thorley,Andreas Wilting,Piotr Tryjanowski,Juha Merilä,Ben C. Sheldon,Anders Pape Møller,Erik Matthysen,Fredric Janzen,F. Stephen Dobson,Marcel E. Visser,Steven R. Beissinger,Alexandre Courtiol,Stephanie Kramer-Schadt

发表时间：2019/07/23

数字识别码：10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4

微信链接：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6ofo5EKfxsKMbgIUNfMIKw

根据本周《自然-通讯》发表的一项元分析Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient ，气候变化的速度已经超过了部分动物物种可适应的速度。

图1:一只崖海鸦正在喂自己的幼鸟吃鲱鱼。研究者在苏格兰五月岛上对这种鸟的繁殖日期进行了连续19年的追踪，本论文使用了这些数据。图源：Michael P. Harris

尽管随着气温上升，部分物种已经加快了其季节性生命周期循环，但是分析结果表明这些适应性变化的发生速度可能不足以保证这些群体可以长期存活。目前面临风险的种群包括西方狍、北美歌雀、崖海鸦和喜鹊。

图2：成年新西兰红嘴鸥和幼鸟。这种鸟是一项在新西兰凯库拉半岛进行了54年的研究的主角，本研究使用了这些数据。图源：Deborah A. Mills

气候变化意味着物种的历史物候（指繁殖和迁徙等周期性活动与季节气候的关系）与目前的气候条件不匹配。物种有可能通过改变自身的物候来对此做出响应，但是前提是物种的行为及发育具有充分的遗传多样性或塑性。

德国莱布尼兹动物园与野生生物研究所（IZW）的Viktoriia Radchuk及同事查阅了10,090篇科学摘要，并从71项已发表的研究（覆盖13个国家的17个物种）中提取数据，以鸟类为重点，评估了动物对气候变化的响应。他们发现物候变化倾向于适应气候变化，即朝着适应全球变暖的方向改变。不过，他们没有发现动物形态有类似的适应变化。

图3 图源：Radchuk等

作者指出，物候转变或能缓解气候变化的部分有害影响。但是，他们发现物候转变的速度不及气候变化的速度；而且计算显示对于许多种群而言，这两者之间的速度差可能已经过大，将危及种群的持续生存。

摘要：Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

（来源：科学网）