南京信息工程大学罗京佳等人在最新研究中，报道了基于NUIST CFS1.1的全球海洋热浪分季节预报。2024年12月26日出版的《大气科学进展》发表了这项成果。

研究人员表示，近年来，海洋热浪对生态系统和社会经济产生了破坏性影响，引起了公众的广泛关注。

本研究基于南京信息工程大学气候预报系统1.1版（NUIST CFS1.1），对MHWs的分季节预报能力进行了评价，并对相关物理过程进行了分析。他们的研究结果表明，在25天的提前期内，该模型可以准确地预测全球mhw的发生。

值得注意的是，即使提前期为51-55天，大多数热带地区以及太平洋东北部和东南部的预报能力也优于随机预报。准确预测海平面压力、纬向流和混合层深度对强震预报具有重要意义。

此外，研究小组还对两个备受关注的MHW事件进行了预测技能评估。该模式准确预报了提前25天的热通量异常变化，准确预报了2020年5-10月南海强海温事件。同时，虽然该模型准确预测了2011年1-4月澳大利亚西海岸强热浪事件的发生，但对此次热浪强度的预测较差。

然而，当提前期超过10天时，对MHW事件相关物理过程的预测是不准确的。

附：英文原文

Title: Sub-seasonal Forecast of Global Marine Heatwaves Based on NUIST CFS1.1

Author: Jiale Hu, Jianxiang Xu, Jing-Jia Luo, Jiaqing Xue, Yujie Nie, Da Zhi

Issue&Volume: 2024-12-26

Abstract: Marine heatwaves (MHWs), which can exert devasting impacts on the ecosystem and socio-economy, have attracted much public interest in recent years. In this study, we evaluate sub-seasonal forecast skill of MHWs based on the Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.1 (NUIST CFS1.1) and analyzes the related physical processes. Our results show that, out to the lead time of 25 days, the model can accurately forecast the occurrence of MHWs globally. Notably, even at lead times of 51-55 days, the forecast skill in most tropical regions, as well as in the northeastern and southeastern Pacific, is superior to random forecasts. Accurate predictions of sea level pressure, zonal currents, and mixed layer depth are important for the MHWs forecasting. Furthermore, we also conduct forecast skill assessment for two well-noticed MHW events. Due to correct forecast of the changes in heat flux anomalies at lead time of 25 days, the model accurately forecasts the strong MHW event in the South China Sea in May-October 2020. Meanwhile, although the model accurately forecasts the occurrence of the strong MHW event along Australia west coast in January-April 2011, forecast of this heatwave’s intensity is poor. However, forecasts of the relevant physical processes of this MHW event were inaccurate when lead time exceeds 10 days.

DOI: 10.1007/s00376-024-4280-x

Source: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/en/article/doi/10.1007/s00376-024-4280-xviewType=HTML