南方科技大学余锡平和中国海洋大学宋丰飞等合作，报道了全球累积的热带气旋能量如何随气候变化而变化。2024年12月26日出版的《科学通报》杂志发表了这项成果。

热带气旋（TC）活动如何随气候变化而变化是一个广泛争论的问题。气旋累积能量（ACE）是表征热带气旋活动的指标之一，因其与热带气旋造成的灾害密切相关而受到广泛关注。以前的研究侧重于发现全球ACE的长期趋势，然而结果是不确定的。

这项研究显示，在过去的40年中，全球ACE表现出显著的年代际变化，历史峰值出现在20世纪90年代。全球ACE的年代际变化与太平洋年代际涛动（IPO）密切相关，Pearson相关系数为0.75 （P<0.01）。当IPO处于正相位时，由于热带地区弱垂直风切变（VWS）条件的覆盖范围更大，因此会出现更多寿命更长的TC。

无论是在大气模式中观测到的海表温度，还是在耦合模式中观测到的IPO，都可以验证弱VWS条件的覆盖范围，表明IPO的作用非常重要。他们的研究结果表明，IPO通过调节大气环流影响全球TC活动的年代际变化。

附：英文原文

Title: How does global accumulated tropical cyclone energy vary in response to a changing climate

Author: Fengfei Song b c, Xiping Yu i

Issue&Volume: 2024/12/26

Abstract: How tropical cyclone (TC) activity varies in response to a changing climate is widely debated. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is one of the indicators of TC activity and has attracted considerable attention because of its close relationship with the damages caused by TCs. Previous studies have focused on detecting long-term trends in global ACE; however, the results are inconclusive. Here, it is revealed that the global ACE demonstrates a striking interdecadal variation over the past four decades, with a historical peak occurring in the 1990s. A close relationship between the interdecadal variability of the global ACE and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is also identified, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.75 (P<0.01). When the IPO is in its positive phase, more TCs with a longer lifetime occur owing to greater coverage of weak vertical wind shear (VWS) conditions over the tropics. The coverage of weak VWS conditions can be verified by either prescribing the observed sea surface temperature in atmospheric models or the observed IPO in coupled models, indicating the significant role of the IPO. Our findings show that the IPO affects the interdecadal variability of global TC activity through moderating atmospheric circulations.

DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2024.12.036

Source: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2095927324009435